Daily Summary, July 4

Good morning, happy Friday and U.S. Independence Day. Markets stateside are shut, but Europe is wide‑awake. From Nordic rate surprises to the eurozone finally kissing its 2 % inflation target, here’s the need‑to‑know before the bell rings.

Market Snapshot

*Moves vs. prior close or, for European equities, futures indication.

Euro‑Nordic Beat

• Inflation bullseye: Flash data put euro‑area CPI at 2.0 % YoY in June, landing cleanly on the ECB’s target for the first time since 2021. Rate‑cut bets paused—markets now price the next trim no earlier than October. ec.europa.eu
  What it means: A “done” inflation fight gives the ECB wiggle room, but officials worry the stronger euro (now flirting with $1.18) could hurt exporters.

• Joint‑debt 2.0: Brussels is floating a €150 bn common‑bond program to co‑fund defence spending under its SAFE plan. Cheaper borrowing for high‑debt members like Italy, pricier politics for fiscally frugal states. politico.eu
  Why it matters: Expect fresh debate over fiscal rules—any green light would deepen the EU‑level bond market and compete with Bunds for haven flows.

• Norges Bank leads the doves: The 25 bp cut to 4.25 % two weeks ago already trickled through money‑markets; traders see two more cuts this year. NOK eased, helping salmon exporters but squeezing importers. reuters.com

• Sweden next? CPIF inflation undershot at 2.3 % in May, bolstering bets the Riksbank will slice rates at its August meet. reuters.com
  Portfolio angle: Swedish government bonds gained on the news, narrowing the spread versus German Bunds to its tightest since 2022.

Global Grind

• Tariff clock ticks: President Trump’s 90‑day tariff truce ends July 9; instead of deals, Washington will mail out tariff “letters” outlining 10 %–50 % reciprocal levies. Risk‑on assets wobbled; dollar gave back yesterday’s jobs‑powered pop. reuters.com
  Takeaway: For EU exporters—from autos to luxury—clarity beats cliff‑edge suspense. Expect hedging flows into FX options through next week.

• Wall Street fireworks: The S&P 500 notched yet another record ahead of the holiday on robust payrolls (+147 k). Still, odds of a September Fed cut slipped to 68 %. reuters.com

• Oil takes a breather: Brent sits under $69 as traders brace for an OPEC+ supply bump in August and cooler U.S. demand if tariffs bite. Barclays, however, just lifted its 2025 Brent forecast to $72 on stronger demand. reuters.com

• Crypto corner: Bitcoin is hovering near $110k after its best monthly close ever. Flows into spot ETFs remain solid as investors eye crypto’s “trade‑war hedge” credentials. coindesk.com

Quick Hits ☕️💨

• European stocks have a history of rallying in July—70 % win‑rate for the STOXX 600—seasonality bulls are watching. euronews.com

• ECB minutes flagged concern over a “too‑strong euro,” hinting at slower rate‑cut cadence if the currency keeps climbing. bloomberg.com

• Visma’s €19 bn London‑IPO push gathers steam; banks pitch next week. bloomberg.com

• Dollar index heads for worst H1 since 1973, despite last‑minute payroll bounce. reuters.com

Exit – Before You Go

That wraps Friday’s rundown. Keep an eye on Monday’s EU‑U.S. tariff headlines and Nordic bond moves—illiquid summer trading can magnify surprises. Until next time, trade smart.

—The Investor Caller team