Daily Summary, June 17

Good morning, and welcome to InvestorCaller’s Daily Briefing for Tuesday, June 17, 2025.
As European markets open, we bring you the latest signals shaping the trading day—from Nordic central bank moves and geopolitical risks to shifting global macro trends. Whether you're managing risk, tracking FX momentum, or scouting cross-border M&A, our concise intelligence helps you stay ahead.

Let’s dive in.

🇪🇺 Europe & Nordics

1. Geopolitical risk weighs on markets

Israel–Iran tensions remain front‑and‑centre. Yesterday, renewed strikes and retaliations shook energy assets: oil spiked ~7.5% during Asia hours, while gold briefly hit $3,451 before.
Despite this, European equity futures point lower today, with STOXX 600 ending a five-day slide as Kering jumped after naming a new CEO.

2. ECB & Nordic monetary policy

ECB VP de Guindos says future rate moves hinge on global trade; while inflation is undershooting now, medium‑term expectations remain anchored. He reaffirmed path toward 2% inflation by 2027.
Meanwhile, SEB forecasts Sweden’s Riksbank will cut rates this month—supported by slowing core inflation and a strong krona up ~15% YTD, its best performance at this point in the year against the U.S. currency in at least 50 years. Norway’s crown is similarly robust (+13%).

3. Regional dealmaking & banking moves

UBS hires Nordics dealmaker Jacob Spens, aiming to climb EMEA fee rankings—signaling increased competition in Nordic corporate finance.
Citigroup UK reports a sharp rebound in M&A activity, with demand from private equity and strategic cross-border deals increasing, though ECM and IPO issuance remain muted

🌍 Global Overview

1. Central bank snapshot

The major central banks—including the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and others—are expected to stand pat this week, citing trade uncertainty and cooling inflation.
The BOJ held overnight rates steady and slowed bond tapering, prompting muted moves in the yen and Japanese yields.

2. Trade and macro pressures

EU–China economic talks are suspended amid friction over EV tariffs.
US–China trade irritation lingers: global growth forecasts under 3% in 2025–26, per SEB, with Europe better cushioned but with lingering trade risk.

3. Growth & inflation

Euro‑area inflation has fallen below 2% (1.9% in May)—allowing ECB room to pause.
Southern European sovereign bonds are snapping back, with Italian, Spanish, and Greek yields narrowing vs. Bunds as growth sentiment improves.

4. Corporate & sector highlights

Airbus confirmed ~$10 bn in orders at the Paris Air Show, contrasting with Boeing’s muted presence after its recent crash.
Volvo Cars CEO comments on a shift towards dual‑tech platforms (China vs. Western markets), reflecting the fragmentation of global trade and tech policy.

5. U.S. corporate migration & tax policy

JPMorgan’s EMEA boss is relocating to New York amid UK tax shake‑up; Goldman Sachs also sees exec flight to Milan and Switzerland after the non‑dom tax change.

That wraps up your InvestorCaller Morning Briefing.

As we track a volatile macro backdrop—marked by rising geopolitical tensions, divergent rate paths, and sector-specific disruptions—agility remains key. Watch for central bank signals, currency shifts in the Nordics, and momentum in European dealmaking to guide today's positioning.

Stay sharp, and we’ll be back tomorrow with fresh insights.