Daily Summary, June 30
🗞️ Good Morning, Investors
Welcome to the second half of 2025 — we made it.
Europe’s waking up to softer inflation, upbeat M&A chatter and a $2 bn UBS buyback that screams confidence. Global risk tone? Cautiously bullish, helped by an Israel‑Iran cease‑fire that’s taken the heat out of oil. Let’s dig in.
📈 Markets at a Glance (07:45 CET)
Asset | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
STOXX 600 | 544.47 | ▲ 0.2 % at 07:14 GMT reuters.com |
S&P 500 Futures (Sep 25) | 6 247.75 | ▲ 0.4 % cmegroup.com |
Nikkei 225 | 40 765.7 | ▲ 1.5 % close finance.yahoo.com |
Brent Crude | $67.64/bbl | ▼ 0.9 % reuters.com |
Spot Gold | $3 290/oz | ▲ 0.5 % reuters.com |
EUR/USD | $1.172 | flat, near 4‑yr high reuters.com |
🏦 Big in Europe
🔔 UBS kicks off a $2 bn buyback
The Swiss giant launches repurchases tomorrow and will spell out 2026 capital‑return targets with FY 25 results. Shareholders toast the signal of post‑Credit‑Suisse integration strength. reuters.com
🏘 Swiss Marketplace Group files for Zurich IPO
The classifieds‑to‑property platform guides 13‑15 % top‑line growth as it eyes a Q4 debut—another sign Europe’s new‑issue window is finally reopening. reuters.com
🇩🇪 German data stays soft
Retail sales –1.6 % m/m in May, well below forecasts. reuters.com
Import prices –1.1 % y/y, extending deflation in tradeables. reuters.com
🌡 Eurozone inflation dips below target
HICP slows to 1.9 % y/y in May—the first sub‑2 print since 2021—cementing June’s 25 bp ECB cut (deposit rate now 2.00 %). ec.europa.eureuters.com
🌍 Big‑Picture Themes
Theme | Why It Matters |
Fed Outlook | June dot‑plot shows two 2025 cuts; Powell stays data‑dependent ahead of Friday’s PCE report. reuters.comreuters.com |
Deal‑Making Resurgence | H1 global M&A hit $2.14 tn, +26 % y/y, led by Asia megadeals. reuters.com |
China Slowdown | May industrial profits –9.1 % y/y—pressure mounts for July Politburo stimulus. reuters.com |
Geopolitics & Oil | Israel‑Iran cease‑fire and looming OPEC+ August hike shave Brent to mid‑$60s. reuters.com |
🧮 TL;DR — Monday Cheat‑Sheet
ECB wins round 1: euro‑area CPI slips to 1.9 %.
UBS flexes $2 bn: buyback kicks off 1 July.
Fed patience: dot‑plot still pencils in two cuts.
M&A mojo: H1 deal value surges 26 %.
Oil deflates: Brent back below $70 as cease‑fire holds.
🔁 Before You Go
The quarter opens with disinflation tailwinds in Europe, yet global macro hinges on U.S. data later this week. Keep an eye on Friday’s PCE—and whether falling oil and a softer dollar let risk assets extend their summer rally.
